新报告警告说，由于气候变化，对美国保险公司的威胁不断增加
CERES投资者联盟的一份新报告显示，除非保险公司及其监管机构采取措施解决气候变化的不断影响，否则公司，政府和公众将遭受重大财务损失。
The report, authored by three industry experts, documents the precipitous rise in insured and uninsured weather-related losses in the U.S. and how climate change will likely magnify these losses in the years ahead, whether in homeowner losses due to hurricanes, crop losses due to drought or business interruptions due to lightning strikes. The report cites a 15-fold increase in insured losses from catastrophic weather events (those with over $1 billion of damages) in the past three decades -- losses that have far out-stripped premium increases, inflation and population growth over the same time period.
If climate change trends and insurance trends continue, the report warns, availability and affordability of insurance will be at even greater risk for homeowners and businesses. State and federal governments can also expect more financial liability as they increasingly become "insurers of last resort" in response to private insurers further restricting coverage and withdrawing from more markets.
委托这项研究的CERES总裁Mindy S. Lubber说：“我们所知道的保险受到天气损失，全球温度上升和比以往任何时候都多的美国人的理想风暴的威胁。”“保险公司和监管机构未能为这些不断升级的天气事件做出充分的计划，科学家预测，由于全球温度变暖，在未来几年会加剧。”
全国保险专员协会（NAIC）计划在计划于9月10日至13日在新奥尔良举行的秋季会议上讨论气候变化对保险业的影响。由于卡特里娜飓风，这次会议随后被取消，而气候变化的讨论现已在12月的NAIC冬季会议上进行。
内布拉斯加州保险局局长蒂姆·瓦格纳（Tim Wagner）表示：“在新奥尔良之后，我们正在越来越清楚地经历更频繁，更强大的天气事件，这对保险业带来了巨大挑战。”在墨西哥湾，卡特里娜飓风的力量可能增加了。“这既是沿海问题，又是心脏地带问题。我们在大平原上看到各种极端天气，包括干旱，龙卷风，刷子和严重的冰雹。”
The report comes as the number of weather-related events, the variability of total losses and the economic impacts and demographic drivers are all on the rise. Insured and total property losses ($45 billion and $107 billion globally in 2004, respectively) are rising faster than premiums, population or economic growth both globally and in the U.S. Even after correcting for inflation, weather-related catastrophe losses in the U.S. property/casualty sector have grown from a few billion dollars a year in the 1970s to an average of $15 billion a year in the past decade, punctuated by three peaks of over $25 billion a year and a record high in 2004 that included $30 billion in hurricane losses alone. Hurricane Katrina's impacts could far exceed those losses.
天气损失也变得越来越不可预测，尤其是当来自美国和其他工业化国家的保险公司正在积极进入迅速新兴市场，例如中国和印度，这构成了额外的天气风险。随着工业化国家中的增长率三倍，发展中国家的溢价量将占未来几十年中全球总数的一半。缺乏建筑法规和其他因素使这些市场更容易受到气候变化的成本和其他影响。
该报告引用了许多研究，预测，由于更高的温室气体排放（GHG）的全球温度升高将为全球保险公司和美国造成额外的财务负担三个“美国灾难建模者表示，在高温室气体排放情况下（正如许多领先的气候模型所预测的那样，二氧化碳水平与当今水平增加一倍），从极端的美国飓风中造成的与风相关的保险损失可能会增加到1000亿美元，这是一项在2004年的一个赛季中，在一个赛季中增加了相当于两到三场飓风。此类损失将要求保险公司将其资本需求提高90％，从而导致溢价和其他不利消费者影响。在低排放情况下的损失（二氧化碳水平高40％）只是高排放情况的五分之一。
Yet, despite these rising insurance risks, climate change has received little attention to date from U.S. insurers, regulators and governments. The report recommends the following actions for insurers, regulators, and government:
Jack Ehnes, chief executive officer at the California State Teacher's Retirement System (CalSTRS), one of the country's largest pension funds, said a growing number of institutional investors are pushing insurance companies to focus more attention on climate change. "Investors are increasingly more concerned about the financial risks posed by climate change and our interest is especially strong for an industry that is so directly exposed to the physical impacts of global warming," Ehnes said, "Insurers must take active steps to understand and assess these daunting tasks."
完整的报告可用于PDF格式下载online。
The report, authored by three industry experts, documents the precipitous rise in insured and uninsured weather-related losses in the U.S. and how climate change will likely magnify these losses in the years ahead, whether in homeowner losses due to hurricanes, crop losses due to drought or business interruptions due to lightning strikes. The report cites a 15-fold increase in insured losses from catastrophic weather events (those with over $1 billion of damages) in the past three decades -- losses that have far out-stripped premium increases, inflation and population growth over the same time period.
If climate change trends and insurance trends continue, the report warns, availability and affordability of insurance will be at even greater risk for homeowners and businesses. State and federal governments can also expect more financial liability as they increasingly become "insurers of last resort" in response to private insurers further restricting coverage and withdrawing from more markets.
委托这项研究的CERES总裁Mindy S. Lubber说：“我们所知道的保险受到天气损失，全球温度上升和比以往任何时候都多的美国人的理想风暴的威胁。”“保险公司和监管机构未能为这些不断升级的天气事件做出充分的计划，科学家预测，由于全球温度变暖，在未来几年会加剧。”
全国保险专员协会（NAIC）计划在计划于9月10日至13日在新奥尔良举行的秋季会议上讨论气候变化对保险业的影响。由于卡特里娜飓风，这次会议随后被取消，而气候变化的讨论现已在12月的NAIC冬季会议上进行。
内布拉斯加州保险局局长蒂姆·瓦格纳（Tim Wagner）表示：“在新奥尔良之后，我们正在越来越清楚地经历更频繁，更强大的天气事件，这对保险业带来了巨大挑战。”在墨西哥湾，卡特里娜飓风的力量可能增加了。“这既是沿海问题，又是心脏地带问题。我们在大平原上看到各种极端天气，包括干旱，龙卷风，刷子和严重的冰雹。”
The report comes as the number of weather-related events, the variability of total losses and the economic impacts and demographic drivers are all on the rise. Insured and total property losses ($45 billion and $107 billion globally in 2004, respectively) are rising faster than premiums, population or economic growth both globally and in the U.S. Even after correcting for inflation, weather-related catastrophe losses in the U.S. property/casualty sector have grown from a few billion dollars a year in the 1970s to an average of $15 billion a year in the past decade, punctuated by three peaks of over $25 billion a year and a record high in 2004 that included $30 billion in hurricane losses alone. Hurricane Katrina's impacts could far exceed those losses.
天气损失也变得越来越不可预测，尤其是当来自美国和其他工业化国家的保险公司正在积极进入迅速新兴市场，例如中国和印度，这构成了额外的天气风险。随着工业化国家中的增长率三倍，发展中国家的溢价量将占未来几十年中全球总数的一半。缺乏建筑法规和其他因素使这些市场更容易受到气候变化的成本和其他影响。
该报告引用了许多研究，预测，由于更高的温室气体排放（GHG）的全球温度升高将为全球保险公司和美国造成额外的财务负担三个“美国灾难建模者表示，在高温室气体排放情况下（正如许多领先的气候模型所预测的那样，二氧化碳水平与当今水平增加一倍），从极端的美国飓风中造成的与风相关的保险损失可能会增加到1000亿美元，这是一项在2004年的一个赛季中，在一个赛季中增加了相当于两到三场飓风。此类损失将要求保险公司将其资本需求提高90％，从而导致溢价和其他不利消费者影响。在低排放情况下的损失（二氧化碳水平高40％）只是高排放情况的五分之一。
Yet, despite these rising insurance risks, climate change has received little attention to date from U.S. insurers, regulators and governments. The report recommends the following actions for insurers, regulators, and government:
- 保险公司需要收集有关天气相关损失的更多完整数据；将气候建模纳入其风险分析中；分析气候变化对其业务和投资的影响，并与股东分享结果；并鼓励政策行动减少温室气体排放。
- 监管机构需要在公司偿付能力和消费者影响分析中包括气候风险；审查确定新挑战的“可保险性标准”，包括美国和国外的气候危害；鼓励保险公司收集有关损失的更多全面数据；提高灾难建模的标准；并评估保险公司投资的敞口以及资本和盈余中的极端天气事件的充分性。
- 政府需要促进和参与公私伙伴关系以进行保险风险传播；全面评估政府对天气灾难的总体财务暴露；通过改善预警系统，土地使用计划和其他措施来减少遭受灾难损失的脆弱性；并采取政策行动以减少温室气体排放。
Jack Ehnes, chief executive officer at the California State Teacher's Retirement System (CalSTRS), one of the country's largest pension funds, said a growing number of institutional investors are pushing insurance companies to focus more attention on climate change. "Investors are increasingly more concerned about the financial risks posed by climate change and our interest is especially strong for an industry that is so directly exposed to the physical impacts of global warming," Ehnes said, "Insurers must take active steps to understand and assess these daunting tasks."
完整的报告可用于PDF格式下载online。
