How to keep your head during a U.S. presidential transition

Transitions from one administration to the next are frequently exciting, sometimes entertaining and always important — especially when there is a change of political party involved.

Transitions capture anxiety from departing leaders and their supporters over the lasting impact of their policies and legacies as well as anticipation from expectant office holders eager to gain coveted positions and implement their agendas. Most incumbent administrations vacate with reduced energy and focus, while many incoming transition teams often overestimate the electoral mandate they obtained from the recent election.

Transitions capture anxiety from departing leaders and their supporters over the lasting impact of their policies and legacies as well as anticipation from expectant office holders eager to gain coveted positions and implement their agendas.

Faced with an especially contentious 2016 election, what are some important barometers for evaluating the current transition from an Obama to a Trump administration? Four indicators are especially useful to watch:

• 意识形态与能力。Every new administration is fired up by its victorious campaigners eager to implement their vision of the good and just society, and many of them will be selected for important positions. Such intensely motivated people, however, frequently do not possess the skills, relationships and temperament required for administering large, complex organizations and, across the history of presidential administrations, they often depart in the first half of a president’s term. President Ronald Reagan, for example, appointed highly ideological cabinet level officials to lead the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Interior. Plagued by incompetence and scandal, these officials departed or their agendas were re-focused within two years.
  
  
• Rollback vs. reform.在竞选期间，总统特朗普和其他替代品大力向奥巴马医结果，气候变化协定法规和金融改革进行了大力陈述。新总统将拥有重大的执行机构，以便在这些方案中进行调整，但他需要批准法院和大会的制裁，以废除或大大改造或废除它们。虽然在竞选活动期间进行了对这些和其他政府举措的奇怪辩论，但社会的主要声音 - 从商界到州和地方官员 - 即使在支持有针对性的改革的同时也已经适用于其中的主要部分。
  
  
• 单侧主义与合作.美国仍然是一个世界上的主要军事力量，其中许多主要问题并非由军队无法解决。作为大规模人口迁移，Brexit和欧盟的凝聚力，与中国和其他国家的经济竞争以及战略重要地区的水资源稀有的问题都是在国家安全议程的最高恐怖主义，叙利亚和与俄罗斯的关系。单方面 - 在一个没有人真正能够负责的世界中的军事或经济形式将导致暴露和风险，而领导力包括如何激励，哄骗以及有时强迫人们在解决问题方面进行协作。
  
  
• Policy vs. markets.Significant political opportunities are emerging to enact legislation to rebuild large parts of America’s infrastructure and reform the tax code. Other issues, such as immigration reform, modifying trade agreements, deficit reduction, or changing regulatory frameworks, are more politically challenging. Not only is a different coalition required to advance each issue, each coalition frequently exposes fault lines within a new administration’s party or its allies on whether to rely primarilyon政策工具或市场力量达到预期的结果。例如，许多首席执行官在想法的运动中自称是免费的交易者，goodsand people, but they support entitlement reform and favor some form of limits on carbon emissions either through regulation or a tax. Observing how the Trump administration threads the needle between policy or market solutions, or a hybrid approach, will be one of the most consequential parlor games in the early phases of its term.

Observing how the Trump administration threads the needle between policy or market solutions, or a hybrid approach, will be one of the most consequential parlor games in the early phases of its term.

In sorting out and reconciling these dichotomous choices, the ability to set priorities is critical. Will the new administration develop a very focused agenda and mobilize its political capital to successfully persuade Congress to enact its proposals (the early-Reagan approach on economic and security issues), or will its appointments and attention span languish with the ticking of the clock (the first-term Clinton result)? Will the issues that matter be addressed (the economy, national security, climate change) and can the new president achieve the appropriate balance between unifying the country and reassuring his supporters?

无论结果是什么，我们都会很好地建议记住奴隶的话语，他们低声在罗马Charioteer的耳朵中：sic transit gloria mundi— all glory is fleeting.