The global economic slowdown triggered by the escalating coronavirus crisis is on course to deliver the steepest annual fall in CO2 in history, with a larger reduction in emissions expected in 2020 than seen even during the Second World War, tentative analysis from Carbon Brief indicates.
Recent weeks have seen unprecedented disruption to the global economy, with efforts to halt further spread of the deadly pandemic resulting in economies going into lockdown, travel restrictions that drastically have cut down on flights, major industrial and manufacturing closures, declining energy demand and fewer people using fossil fuels to power cars, trains and boats.
As a result,studies suggest CO2 in Europe has dropped 58 percentsince lockdowns began several weeks ago, whilethe International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting7.5％的年度股东在2020年期间的能源相关碳排放量。
碳简介释放的预测建议，根据经济和排放数据的几个来源，大流行可能导致全球二氧化碳减少，与2019年相比，1,600百万公吨的区域，这大致相当于排放的4％。
NEW - Analysis: Coronavirus set to cause largest ever annual fall in CO2 emissions |@DrSimEvanshttps://t.co/rkqhboadtwpic.twitter.com/dxrb3vxss8.
- 碳简介（@carbonbref）2020年4月9日
While stressing the figure is "necessarily uncertain" due to a range of factors, a drop in CO2 to that effect would mark a greater reduction in emissions than seen during any previous economic crisis or wartime period, including both world wars in 20th century, Carbon Brief said.
The five previous biggest falls in emissions occurred during World War II, the global recession in 1991 to 1992, the early 1980s energy crisis, the Spanish flu pandemic shortly after the First World War and the 2008 financial crash, according to the analysis.
然而，由于它快速指出，如果排放量最终在2020年最终降低到去年，这可能只是行业再次驾驶之前的临时昙花一现，可能会改变基本结构全球经济。
Crucially, too, it emphasizes that such a reduction still would not even come close to bringing the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming target set out in the Paris Agreement within reach.
事实上，IPCC已经表示，每年在2020年代每年需要跌幅超过6％ - 每年超过2,200万吨二氧化碳 - 甚至停用将平均温度升高到1.5摄氏度的机会工业时报到世纪末。
在排放中提供如此迅速，深度和持续的削减显然对全球经济仍然是一个巨大的挑战，而今年的任何排放都会对实现气候目标的影响几乎没有影响，除非它跟随对经济的更长的变化，分析指出。
"To put it another way, atmospheric carbon levels areexpected to increase今年再次，即使二氧化碳排放量仍然更大，“IT指出。”二氧化碳浓度上升 - 和相关的全球变暖 - 只会稳定一年年度排放达到净零。“
Moreover, as green figures repeatedly have stressed since the scale of the coronavirus crisis became clearer, the short term cuts in emissions as a result of economic downturns and public health crises offer little cause for celebration. Not only are people's lives and livelihoods at risk, but the current crisis is set to severely hamper investment and rollout of the low carbon economy.
Delivering such rapid, deep and sustained cuts in emissions clearly remains a tremendous challenge for the global economy.
Just Thursday, for example, U.S. analyst Wood Mackenzie forecasted a 43 percent drop in global electric vehicle sales in 2020 due to the current pandemic, which is likely to hold back the burgeoning sector's progress by at least 12 months before it stands any change of returning to growth.
碳简介分析采用五个关键数据集，涵盖了世界年度二氧化碳排放量大约四分之三，包括美国的整个产出，欧盟碳市场，印度电力部门和全球石油工业。
From that, and in conjunction with a range of other sources, Carbon Brief crunched data to reach its estimate, but its analysis is at pains to stress the experimental nature of the projection, due to myriad challenges in securing reliable data and forecasting for the year ahead during a deeply uncertain and unprecedented period for much of the global economy.
As such, it is entirely possible that emissions could end up dropping even further than Carbon Brief's current headline forecast, perhaps by as much as 10 percent — more than double today's estimate — shouldthe World Trade Organization's worst case scenarioof a 9 percent fall in global GDP come to bear in 2020.
Growing calls therefore have been coming for economic recovery packages which focus on stimulating green infrastructure rather than high carbon projects, although it remains to be seen how quickly the pandemic can be brought under control, and how long economic restrictions could be in place.
