China is positioned to lead on climate change as the US rolls back its policies

As theeffects of climate changebecome more widespread and alarming, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres hascalled on nations加紧计划减少温室气体排放。每个国家都有可以发挥作用，但如果世界上最大的排放不符合其承诺，持有全球变暖到一个可控的水平的目标将仍然不能接触的地方。

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are在上升经过几年的下降，部分由于特朗普政府的废除或延迟Obama administration policies。In contrast, China — the world largest emitter — appears to be honoring its climate targets under the2015年巴黎协定，as we documented in arecent article with colleagues。

我们研究中国的许多方面energy and climate policy， 包含industrial energy efficiency and reforestration。Our analysis indicates that if China fully executes existing policies and finishes reforming its electric power sector into a market-based system, its carbon dioxide emissions are likely to peak well before its 2030 target.

China’s climate portfolio

在过去的十年里中国有positioned itself as a global leaderon climate action through aggressive investments and a bold mix of climate, renewable energy, energy efficiency and economic policies. As one of us (Kelly Sims Gallagher) documents in the recent book"Titans of the Climate,"中国已经实施了有关降低其能源使用和温室气体排放量100个多项政策。

著名的例子包括：feed-in-tariff policy可再生能源发电，这为他们提供了一个保证价格为他们的权力;能效标准的电厂，机动车，建筑物和设备;目标从非化石能源的能源生产;并授权对煤炭消费上限。

中国已经加入庞大的风能和太阳能的安装到它的网格和开发国内大型工业制造的太阳能电池板，电池和电动车。在2017年后期又推出了国家排放交易体系，which creates a market for buying and selling carbon dioxide emissions allowances. This was a profoundly symbolic step, given that the United States still has not adopted a national market-based climate policy.

Most of these policies will produce additional benefits, such as improving China’s energy security, promoting economic reform and reducing ground-level air pollution. The only major program explicitly aimed at reducing carbon dioxide is the emissions trading system.

中国将需要进行多次的政策开始，到2030年减少其二氧化碳排放量 - 最重要的是，改革其电力部门。Gallagher et al., 2019.，CC BY

主要挑战和政策空白

Under the Paris Agreement, China committed to start reducing its carbon dioxide emissions and derive 20 percent of its energy from non-fossil fuels by around 2030. But when Chinese emissions上涨2018国际观察员担心北京可能无法实现其目标。我们分析中国的行动，以评估风险。

在我们的审阅，我们发现，在2030年影响最大的对中国的预测排放量的政策是电力行业改革，产业转型，产业效率，排放贸易和轻型车辆的使用效率。

改革电力部门是一个重要的步骤。传统上，中国电力定价机制被确定National Development and Reform Commission，这会导致国家的宏观经济规划。他们赞成现有的电力生产商，特别是燃煤电厂，而不是干净，最有效的来源。

尽管中国近年来取得的风能和太阳能发电的大投资，它也保持建设的燃煤电厂。

China committed to electric power reform,including emission reductions and greater use of renewables，在2015年转换为一个进程，电网管理者从发电机，成本最低的源起应便于安装和使用可再生能源，由于可再生能源发电具有几乎为零的边际成本购买电力。同时，可再生能源项目在中国，特别是太阳能，已成为cheaper than grid electricity。

Even as China made big investments in wind and solar power in recent years, it also不停地建设燃煤电厂。电力部门的改革将有助于通过停止计划添加和鼓励市场竞争的减少导致的产能过剩。

Reducing China’s reliance on coal energy is an enormous long-term shift.

但是，不能保证成功。受影响的公司是大型国有企业。有一个从现有燃煤电厂的业主，并从生产和使用大量的煤省份的政治阻力。目前美国与中国的贸易战争正在减缓中国的经济增长和刺激rising concerns about employment，它可以改革进程进一步复杂化。

China’s emissions trading system has had a very modest impact so far because it set a low initial price on carbon dioxide emissions: $7 per ton, increasing by 3 percent annually through 2030. But our analysis found that emissions trading, which allows low-carbon generators to make money by selling emissions allowances that they don’t need, could become influential over the longer term if it can sustain a much higher price. If China reduces its cap on total carbon dioxide emissions after 2025, which will increase the price of emissions allowances, this policy could become a major driver for emission reductions in the power sector.

能效标准，特别是燃煤发电厂，工厂和汽车，也将在未来十年非常重要的。

能效标准，特别是燃煤发电厂，工厂和汽车，也将在未来十年非常重要的。To continue driving progress, China will need to update these standards continuously.

Finally, there are some important gaps in China’s climate policies. Currently they only target carbon dioxide emissions, although China also generates significant quantities of other greenhouse gases, includingmethane and black carbon。

而中国是促进排放边界之外出口煤炭设备and直接融资海外煤厂通过其带和道路倡议。没有一个国家，包括中国，目前报告其国家排放清单国外产生的排放。

Coal projects currently financed by China.Global Coal Finance Tracker，CC BY-NC

Following through

中国面临着在实现其目标巴黎最大的挑战是确保企业和地方政府遵守政策法规，政府已经已经到位。在过去，中国有时曾与环境执法努力在地方一级省时和市政府在环境优先的经济发展。

假设中国没有履行其现有的和宣布的气候和能源政策，我们认为其二氧化碳排放量可能会达到峰值以及2030年在我们看来之前，中国领导人应该集中精力完成电力部门改革，尽快，实施和加强排放交易，使能效标准在未来更严格和开发行业，如钢铁，运输新的碳定价政策。好用的买球外围app网站

如果他们成功了，美国政客们将不再有“可是中国呢？”作为家里反对气候政策的借口。

罗比·奥维斯andJeffrey Rissmanfrom能源创新andQiang Lu来自National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation在中国共同撰写这篇文章中描述的研究。

This article is republished fromThe Conversation根据创作共用许可证。