埃默里·洛文斯3个大能源趋势看

编者按：埃默里·洛文斯将出席VERGE会议10月14日至17日在旧金山。

大众媒体和政治喋喋不休是充斥着的能源新闻和舆论杂音。在一片混乱中，一些有序的股就可以看出端倪。这里有三个主题，值得关注：

1.效率正在加速

Government forecasts predict U.S. energy intensity (primary energy used per dollar of real GDP) will continue to decline roughly 2 percent annually through 2040, but that the drop will be steepest in automobiles.

通过更严格的燃油经济性标准灌进管道的部分动机，lightweighting- 新的“平台健身”方法的核心，其重点是解决动力技术和燃料源之前，首先优化汽车的结构 - 一直是业界最热门strategic trend for several years. In short, the auto industry is finally beginning the fundamental change we’ve been advocating since 1991. And as automakers and government adopt Rocky Mountain Institute’s (RMI) fitness-first, ultralighting-focused strategy, they’re finding that making costly batteries or fuel cells fewer rather than cheaper can make electric cars more affordable with less time, cost and risk. This can save severalfold more oil than the government forecasts, use 80 percent less autobody manufacturing capital, de-risk automaking and save (in the U.S. alone) half an OPEC’s worth of oil.

Meanwhile, U.S. autos’ 4 percent average asset utilization -- that is, they sit idle 96 percent of the time -- is driving remarkable new carsharing and ridesharing programs, smartphone apps and emergent automaker business models based on leasing mobility services rather than selling autos. These developments, adopting natural capitalism’s powerful “solutions economy” business model, profoundly could reduce the need for autos to yield the same or better mobility and access at lower cost.

同时，电力的高效利用 - 这是用于建筑四分之三，四分之一行业 - 终于开始拉其数十年之久的低迷了。这是一个大问题节约资金和气候，因为生产和提供电力是非常资本密集型，并采用经典的2至4个燃料的电厂提供电力的一个单元。RMI大部分的工作集中在这方面的努力，正如已故雷安德森C.穿上它，以“转绊脚石变成垫脚石。”努力，如RMI的改造倡议 - 其工具，投资组合的挑战和培训工作稳步赢得追随者 - 是由资产所有者，金融家，租户，设计人员，安装人员和社区缩放收养重要杠杆。

初始回报在未来，电气强度（每真正的美元GDP电力消耗），自1996年以来在所有但两年下降，由总共19％的漂流而下，但仅在2012年，修正天气之前，它下跌了前所未有的3.7％。开支能源效率计划是一路攀升，并有望继续攀升。2006年至2010年间，在公用事业能源效率计划的支出超过是由$ 2十亿一倍至$ 4.8十亿。劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室和美国会为节能经济支出的预报要到2025年中的场景，仅仅是维持目前的能源效率政策下再翻一番，到$ 9.5十亿到$ 10.8十亿。更积极的努力，看得出花攀升至$ 15.6十亿到$ 16.8十亿。Increasingly propelled by utility- and customer-financed efficiency efforts (with utilities incented by changed rules that, in 15 states for electricity and 20 for natural gas, already reward utilities for cutting customers’ bills rather than for selling them more energy), stagnant or declining electricity demand is emerging as the “new normal,” according to The Brattle Group and Deloitte.

Just the new building codes that entered force in 2011-12 in half the states almost could offset previously forecast electricity sales growth. And electricity demand consistently could shrink, dropping by one-fourth by 2050 despite a 2.6-fold bigger U.S. economy, if the lucrative efficiency gains described in“Reinventing Fire”通过了超过20年在西北太平洋国家已经达到的程度。In sum, 2050 could see tripled U.S. energy productivity, on top of the more-than-doubling already achieved since 1975. That prize is worth trillions of dollars, with handsome financial returns -- plus even bigger non-energy benefits we didn’t count.

2. Renewables are making headway, with more progress needed

安装太阳能电池组件的生意兴隆。Germany took it to scale- 每年8 GW - 并在2011年和2012年安装在单个一个月的PV超过美国全年增加。该卷还下调了德国安装的系统成本的一半我们的，尽管大家都买同样的设备。If the U.S. did that too, it’d have really cheap solar power, because Germany gets about as much sun as Alaska and far less than the mainland U.S. But even so, U.S. solar prices are now low enough that photovoltaics on your roof, financed with no down payment, can beat your utility bill in over a dozen states. In fact, solar accounted for 49 percent of new electric capacity installed during Q1 2013 and all new utility electricity generation capacity added to the U.S. grid during March, according to SEIA and FERC.

In 2011, California utilities soliciting bids for solar power were offered enough to meet more than the state’s total peak load. In 2012, the solar bids accepted by utilities undercut their cost of power from efficient new gas-fired power plants. (Last month, Palo Alto’s new 30-year solar power contract cost just 6.9 cents/kWh.) Back out the temporary 30 percent solar subsidy (generally smaller than permanent subsidies to nonrenewable competitors) and you still get a price that’ll compete in a few years head-to-head with traditional generators. Indeed, it competes right now if you install as efficiently as the Germans do, or properly price carbon, or value small, fast, modular and renewable generators’ unique economic and engineering benefits.

风电保持与国会停止和前进的政策努力，但创下了设备的创纪录的一年，具有较强的2013展开部分得益于生产税收抵免的临时延长。在美国各地的中心多风带新增风电出售的平均时间为32 $ /兆瓦时，从约$ 25至$ 40接收联邦补贴后。背出补贴，一般比那些不可再生的竞争对手更小，更短暂的，你仍然可以击败任何新的中央热电站的今天。（在这样的地方如澳大利亚和巴西，新的风电场已经击败新的燃煤和燃气电厂，没有任何可再生能源补贴或碳定价。）此外，中央热电站往往会得到更昂贵，但风力发电的成本不断下降。再次，从中国残酷的价格压力，这增加了一倍五年风电运行，有助于下沉所有的价格和速度全球采用。

The bottom line: Wind power added 45 GW of global capacity in 2012, PVs about 32. These and other non-hydro renewables are continuing to win a quarter-trillion dollars’ private investment per year globally (more than all fossil and nuclear generation got) and may hit $500 billion per year or more in the foreseeable future. This is no longer a fringe activity: It’s the core of the global market and increasingly central to the United States’ energy landscape. Even so, fossil fuels enjoy hundreds of billions in global investment annually and $1.9 trillion annually in subsidies, according to IMF, so the transition is far from a foregone conclusion. But the tide may be turning.

煤炭只是在过去七年在过去的两年中失去了其美国市场份额，以天然气，可再生能源和效率28％，19％。“蓬勃发展”的天然气，同时，看到了可再生能源到2012年上半年运行新增装机容量位居第二，而在今年下半年，新的风电装机容量单独推天然气到第二位。在这样的地方如加利福尼亚州和得克萨斯州，可再生能源的供应越来越显著笔电给电网 - 在加利福尼亚州，去年，国家三大股东拥有的公用事业产生的可再生能源电量的19.8％，根据加州公共事业委员会;得克萨斯州，引领着近13万千瓦的风电装机容量的国家，到2012年年底，超过其可再生能源在2012年电力的10％产生，根据ERCOT，并在2013年初已接近30％。

3.分布式发电是未来

动力不只是来自化石燃料发电厂可再生能源，但也从集中式向分布式发电转变。这里的游戏改变是产生电力的装置已经从慢，巨大项目转移 - 类似于构建大教堂 - 到可缩放的，大量生产的，生产的产品。一个单一的中国光伏工厂每年可以使数GW的PV，冲压出来24/7，就如智能手机和电脑 - 我们知道，确实给价格什么。(China now has most of the world’s PV-making capacity, which totals at least twice what installers could use last year. That surplus crashed the price. Surprise! Some photovoltaic manufacturers were killed by Chinese competition and these lower prices, including China’s own Suntech. But China’s new 35-GW PV target for 2015 quickly will absorb the surplus.)

这种转变可再生能源保持价格领导无情地下降，并带来了两个技术及其在群众达到融资。一方面是因为这些丹麦风力机的86％是由农民和他们的社区拥有丹麦32年从集中燃煤电厂分布式风和热电厂移（后者由农业废弃物主要是供电）是可能的。同样，德国的可再生能源装机容量的一半是由公民，合作社和社区企业为中心的美国所拥有，与只有大约2％

Crowdfunding, real estate investment trusts (REITs), potentially master limited partnerships (such as oil and gas drillers enjoy), commercial PACE bonds and the explosive growth of third-party installer/owners such as SolarCity are likewise starting to revolutionize U.S. solar project financing. More broadly, innovations in financing, business models and delivery channels are just as important and rapid as in technology, but are widely overlooked.

分布式可再生能源省钱，避免价格波动和燃料的不安全感，以及防止碳排放。但他们独特的战略和营销的优势是，如果部署得当在很大程度上分布式系统，它们可以使弹性网格体系结构（通常称为“网状islandable微电网”），使大停电的层叠设计不可能的。这种做法，已被五角大楼采纳，将使得重要电源对superstorms，太阳风暴，物理或网络攻击和其他风险的弹性。超级台风桑迪之后，这种弹性的需求已经开始成为一个重要的市场驱动力。

总之，一个更有效的，多样化的，分布式的，可再生能源发电系统接通电源行业颠倒。系好安全带，并挂在;我们是一个令人兴奋的乘驾到一个更安全，实惠，丰富的作业，气候安全和舒适的地方相比，电力行业在短短几年前，只有领导的目的地。但是，我们绝不能采取结果是理所当然的。我们必须继续致力于顽强破坏的障碍，使改造，看到它通过。

这篇文章最初出现在落基山研究所的解决方案杂志and is reprinted with permission.

望远镜图像CC通过许可chase_elliott通过Flickr,德国农舍的形象Pi-Lens通过存在Shutterstock，丹麦风力涡轮机的图像通过尤金SUSLO通过存在Shutterstock