5 ways 2016 will be a make or break year for climate change
A funny thing happened last month in Paris. For at least a few days, the political hand-wringing and general evasiveness that tend to characterize official remarks on climate change temporarily went away.
Instead of "debating" whether or not global temperatures are going up, prominent figures like U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke candidly about the jarringeconomic and national security threatsposed by continued inaction on climate issues.
But that was in Paris, within the confines of the rather wonky United NationsCOP21 climate summit.
In just one example of deeply contradictory developments elsewhere, lawmakers back on Capitol Hill were also finalizing a budget deal including a provision tolift a 40-year banon U.S. oil exports.
The mixed messages over the last few weeks alone — not to mention many other less-than-stellar environmental developments in recent years (hello, fracking) — raise one big question for 2016: which way from here on climate change?
Here are five key areas to watch in the year ahead.
1. The fight over the future of fossil fuels
Renewable energy and increasingly ambitious carbon reduction goals may be making more headlines of late, but the future of the intricately related fossil fuel sector remains much murkier.
Trillions of dollars in oil and gas subsidies were conspicuously absent from conversation at COP21, though once-esoteric concepts likestranded assetsandcarbon pricingare gaining currency in both government and business circles.
Meanwhile, investors and car owners everywhere arewondering what will happenafter a recent build up in oil supply that has caused prices to plummet, no doubt leaving providers scrambling for a way to recoup revenue.
2. Green greed and the private sector
With corporate luminaries like Apple CEO Tim Cook nowspeaking openlyabout their anxiety over the long-term price prospectus for fossil fuels, how many more businesses willfollow the leadof Apple, Walmart, Google and the dozens of other companies now inking long-term clean energy contracts?
为明确转向清洁能源ly financial reasons has reinvigorated the conversation around "green greed" — a term that belies the increasingly important role of corporations in funding and adopting low-carbon technologies, even if governments aren't necessarily cracking down on fossil fuel alternatives.
3. Problematic politics
In addition to highly fragmented state and local energy laws, there is the nagging fact that climate change is still often used as a conservative political dog whistle in the U.S. in particular.
Though the Obama administrationkilled the Keystone XLoil pipeline projected and gave the green light on the Clean Power Plan, Congress has fought tooth and nail on issues like the end of the U.S. oil export ban. With the 2016 Presidential race looming large and Republican primary candidates leaning hard right, how climate ultimately figures into the campaign is a big question.
One potentially positive omen: therecent extensionof the energy Production Tax Credit (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for wind and solar projects through 2020.
4. Fundraising for a low-carbon future
When it comes to renewable energy, theslew of purchase options上网虽然高度分散的区域regulatory variations is good news for both businesses and governments looking to hit emissions reductions goals. Still, high barriers to entry remain due in large part to the price point of utility-scale renewable energy projects.
Recognizing this funding short fall, Wall Street banks and institutional investors are now joining cash-rich corporations in the realm of clean energy finance.
In addition to keeping an eye on how those dollars are divided, other capital-intensive sustainability priorities, likeclimate mitigation fundingandresilient infrastructureprojects, are likely to emerge as financial focal points in the conversation around climate change.
5. Keeping corporate bad actors in check
Arguably the two biggest environmental news stories of 2015 weren't good news stories. Within a few months last year, it was revealed that auto giant Volkswagen AG hadrigged emissions testsfor millions of diesel-powered cars, and that oil giant Exxon Mobilsuppressed internal climate sciencefor decades.
While it's easy to write off these glaring examples of misconduct as a few extreme cases, they do raise much more broadly-applicable issues around enforcement of environmental rules and standards for corporate reporting.
