Here's why oil is poised for disruption
Talk aboutrisky business. Over the last decade, oil went from being a necessary ingredient of global growth to being its primary constraint. New modeling is now blaming oil’s inability to keep up with demand as a primary driver for depressed American and global growth.
As a new Iraqi insurgency threatens the Persian Gulf oil basin, as China and Vietnam mix it up over drilling rights in the South China Sea, as Russia leverages its control of Eurasian hydrocarbons and as the planet approaches a climatic tipping point, it’s time to rethink our relationship to this vexing resource. Given the political stalemate in Washington, the prize for disruptive business ideas will grow as demand for mobility and demand for investment returns converge in the marketplace.
Here’s what happened. Since the end of World War II, mobility was the driver of growth and oil was a driver of mobility. In this country we know the story well. Since 1945, the U.S. population doubled and today, half of our population — essentially all of the population growth — lives in the car-dependent suburbs. This was not the product of the free market but of government intervention: the GI Bill, Fannie and Freddie, Truman’s 1951 executive order to disperse the population and industry out of our cities and the 1956 Interstate Highway and Defense Act tilted the housing market decisively from cities to suburbs. The federal support continues: Washington’s more than $450 billion of annual subsidies to real estate are predominantly supporting suburbs.
For America’s economy to grow, we had to add another ring of suburbs, which in the car-dependent suburbs mean more vehicle miles travelled, more time in the car and more gas guzzled.
In 2008, that formula for growth collapsed. As the Asian market expanded, Asian oil consumption outpaced oil supply and oil prices hit their all-time highs just after a record suburban growth spurt in the United States. We were driving a record number of miles to make ever-more-distant suburbs livable and we financed it with risky debt. When the oil prices doubled at the same time as the adjustable rate mortgages reset, many American households could not stay in the black and the defaults began to rack up. When you look at抵押违约的热图在美国，它们正好在住房和运输成本最高的地区，在遥远的郊区和埃里布斯（Exurbs）中。好用的买球外围app网站
It turns out global oil supply stalled in 2005 — while global demand was increasing, raising prices over the following three years. Now,says oil economist Steven Kopits，全球石油咨询公司道格拉斯·韦斯特伍德（Douglas-Westwood）的董事总经理，该公司已成为新的正常情况。
Kopits说，石油价格，车辆行驶的车辆几乎直接相关。这就是沉迷于石油的意思。在2005年，当价格开始上涨时，数据显示，美国在2005年达到“峰值驾驶”，而美国仍然比该峰值低8.9％，以行驶的车辆行驶里程测量。航空公司出发的价格也非常敏感，也下降了，比2005年峰值低16％。图片Kopits的绘画是，美国人正在努力保持其流动性，这是当今美国就业的关键。
但是，关于科比特人分析的革命性的是，数据表明，2005年供应峰并不是由于需求减少所致。相反，这是由于没有新的供应。从历史上看，道格拉斯 - 西伍德（Douglas-Westwood）的数据表明，从2004年到2013年，石油供应应扩大23％，但实际供应增长仅为7.5％。当美国和加拿大非常规项目上网时，常规石油达到了顶峰。北美非常规石油是由压裂或加工焦油砂（最危险的环境）衍生而来的，自2005年以来，全球石油供应的所有增长都占了所有增长。
此外，Kopits清楚地表明，缺乏新供应并不是缺乏尝试。自2005年以来，石油专业人士在上游勘探和生产上花费了4万亿美元，每天减少100万桶（MBPD）的常规石油。相比之下，从1998年到2005年，总支出为1.5万亿美元，导致8.6 MBPD增加。
All in, this oil-scarce global economy is reducing economic growth in the advanced OECD countries, including the U.S., by 1 percent to 2 percent per year. With the Federal Reserve, the White House and the IMF all scratching their heads about where the missing growth is, Kopits’ analysis provides some important answers.
随着新供应没有到来，解锁增长的答案在于美国的流动方式。换句话说，科皮特人的发现是一个重要的论点，因为现在是时候从运输中取消链接石油供应了。好用的买球外围app网站这样做，增长应该很好地恢复。
这是破坏美国石油依赖的机会。首先，对下一个郊区的需求正在消失。战后的美国恋爱与依赖汽车的郊区的恋爱已经变成了一个重要的角落与大多数美国人（60％）now wanting to live in walkable, service-rich, transit-oriented communities rather than isolated, car-dependent suburbs. It’s not everyone, as large houses on large lots still make sense for many American families, but today’s demand for a new American dream is three times the post-war demand for suburbs in the first place.这是美国的下一个也是最大的经济机会. Further, new business models such asTesla和Zipcar正在向美国公司展示个人运输的未来发展，这个方向与智能增长设计非常匹配，这些设计既可以产生步行性和便利性美国人越来越渴望。好用的买球外围app网站
正如特斯拉的成功增强了电池技术的突破和直接客户的销售模式一样，未来的破坏将是对强大的想法和丰富资本的混搭。例如，每个人都询问充电电台和特斯拉提供自由权力，the stage is being set为了使太阳能城（也由埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）拥有）向每个屋顶太阳能客户提供电动汽车充电站，并为此，为商业太阳能客户提供了一个停车场。所有这些电池都与电网相关联，这是为我们的新智能电网提供弹性的好方法，该服务可以量化和有利可图。
Suburbia itself is ready for disruption. With commercial suburban real estate depressed along with the surrounding homes, America is just waiting for smart growth’s Donald Trump to start buying up strings of suburban intersections, buying the land cheap, then transforming them into smart-growth town centers and linking them with fast, convenient transit — making a buck, improving mobility while also increasing the tax base. And it’s a win-win for local government: the standard 100,000-square-foot Walmart super store, along with its surface parking, has the same footprint as a 3,500-person village which would net more tax receipts per square foot than big box stores ever pay.
首都在那里。机构投资者正在寻找持久的投资假设，这些假设利用了长期，降低风险的趋势，以在长期到长期中提供有吸引力和可靠的回报。他们正在并且将在各种基础设施和股权上投资，这些基础设施随着时间的推移带来持续价值，超越了季度收益报告，显然坚信CK Prahalad是对的.
The big asset managers are responding with an increasingly diverse and sizable line ofproducts, such as JP Morgan’s NatureVest，FTSE/BlackRock的无化石指数以及许多养老金支持的房地产投资信托基金，这些信托基金会为了客户的福祉和受托人义务而投资于智能增长。
随着华盛顿的头部陷入困境，石油经济学处于高价时期，现在将破坏性的商业模式带入美国经济的时刻。欢迎来到新的机会之地。
Top image byAleksey Klintsvia Shutterstock
