The breakthrough energy innovation of the 21st century is not thin-film solar, sophisticated wind turbines, advanced biofuels or small-scale nukes.

It's shale gas.

So saysDaniel Yergin，能量专家和作者The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World" (Penguin, $35), who was interviewed Tuesday by Walter Isaacson at the Aspen Institute in Washington. Yergin, the best-selling author, consultant and all-around energy guru, is right: The ability to extract natural gas from shale, using a controversial technique known as fracking, is reshaping America's energy landscape.

Yergin说：“在本世纪到目前为止，就规模和影响而言，这是能源上最大的创新。”他将其对能源业务的影响比作新沃尔玛的到来，该沃尔玛在镇上震撼了大小的竞争对手。

廉价，丰富的天然气对能源使用的影响对气候危机产生了巨大影响。

Cleaner-burning gas could replace dirty coal as a fuel to generate electricity. Then again, Yergin said: "It's does create a more challenging marketplace for wind and solar and everything else."

I've just started reading Yergin's book, and it's fascinating. He knows his stuff, did lots of research and writes well, although it must be said that he's an establishment figure who some critics (例如Grist的David Roberts) say is too industry-friendly.

Be that as it may, there's no doubt that shale gas is a force to be reckoned with: Shale gas production grew by 17 percent from 2000 to 2006, which isn't bad, and then it really took off. Better fracking technology (and higher prices) drove the average annual growth rates to 48 percent between 2006 and 2010,according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Currently,EIA说, about 23 percent of U.S. electricity is generated by burning natural gas; by comparison, about 45 percent comes from coal and just 3.6 percent comes from all non-hydropower renewables, i.e., wind, solar, geothermal and waste. The U.S. now appears to have a 100-year supply of natural gas,美国石油研究所说, citing the work of the Potential Gas Committee, a nonprofit group of industry experts.

耶金说：“在能源领域，一切都归结为规模。”

Yergin views the shale gas revolution as a boon. "This resource will grow and be very beneficial to our economy," he said, because it will create hundreds of thousands of jobs, across many regions. Shale gas is found in Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as in Louisiana, Texas and Wyoming. Petrochemical plants that left the U.S. when natural gas prices spiked could return. Consumers should benefit from lower electricity and heating costs.

他有信心可以解决围绕压裂的环境问题。Yergin，任职页岩气能源部咨询委员会, said: "The likelihood that fracking is going to affect the water supply is, as the scientists on the committee said, very, very, very unlikely." Local air pollution and waste issues can also be managed, he said. "The need for environmental protection can be met if approached properly,"耶金告诉国会听证会上个月。这与我从壳牌公司（Shell）这样的公司听到的内容符合。

Yergin does not disparage cleaner forms of energy. Costs of solar are coming down because of low-cost manufacturing in China. Wind, he said, is entering the mainstream. "It's a conventional form of energy," he said. Can wind compete with coal or natural gas without subsidies, he was asked. "There's a lot of argument about that."

I asked Yergin whether he thought some combination of technological breakthroughs and political developments could bring down greenhouse gas emissions dramatically, which is what scientists say needs to happen to avert climate instability. He replied that regulations such as加利福尼亚的可再生投资组合标准, which requires that 33 percent of the state's energy be provided by renewables by 2020, and the Obama administration's汽车燃油效率标准, which require cars to average 54 miles per gallon by 2025, will have a major impact.

但是，他说，这样的法规是“第二好的答案”。碳的价格会更好，向消费者发出了明确的信号，并刺激了最具成本效益的低碳替代品。

"Wouldn't the simplest answer be to put a tax on carbon?" Isaacson asked.

"After seeing what happened with cap and trade, I think the answer is yes," Yergin replied.

But, he added, "there's not a big taste right now for raising taxes." Climate could get back on the political agenda if the economy improves.

But climate is a global problem, and even if the U.S. moves to a low-carbon economy, China and India will continue to burn fossil fuels. "Twenty years from now, on a global basis, our energy mix won't look too different than it does today," Yergin said.

If he's right about that, we're all in big trouble.

幸运的是，俗话说，预测很难……尤其是关于未来。