想象一下，当您碰到一块浓雾时，沿着一条横扫山路骑自行车。您知道有一个发夹向前转，可以跨过危险的悬崖的嘴唇，但是您不知道它到底是多远。您什么时候开始制动？随着时间的流逝，您有多难？

答案似乎是如此直观，以至于几乎不值得提出问题 - 您会立即刹车，而艰难的问题 - 但这些是社会必须要求解决气候变化带来的风险的基本问题。

科学家明确指出，如果我们继续像我们一样燃烧化石燃料，在某个时候，我们将面临危险的悬崖 - 灾难性影响的快速，不可逆转的变化点。我们只是不知道什么时候。

我们的超速自行车已经将足够的二氧化碳泵入大气中，远远超过了每百万分之280的历史水平，我们以惊人的速度超过了400 ppm。我们作为一个社会何时刹车？

If we know a cliff is ahead — and we do — but we don't know exactly where — and we don't — the logical response is to slam on the brakes hard enough to insure we can safely navigate the turn.

我们相信社会将做到这一点，实际上，这一过程已经开始。通过市场力量和监管干预措施的某种结合，我们有信心在不远的未来中会出现“低碳”情况，以适当地减少我们对化石燃料的依赖。

12月，可持续财富经理Arjuna Capital和非营利组织在您播种时提出了股东建议ExxonMobilhow the firm would deal with such a scenario. The proposal didn't ask Exxon whether such a scenario was likely, only how the firm would deal with it should it come to pass.

对于股东来说，这是一个非常相关的问题。全球各国政府都同意，全球变暖必须限制在不超过2摄氏度，以避免灾难。最好的气候科学告诉我们，要达到这一分数，能源公司的化石燃料储量中最多可以留在地面上，未燃烧。And yet those reserves are valued on the companies' balance sheets at roughly $27 trillion. What will those reserves be worth if they become“滞留”在地上? Investors refer to this as "carbon asset risk."

看来，这是21世纪能源公司面临的最紧迫的风险之一。人们会认为，评估和计划该风险将在任何能源公司管理的优先事项中排名最高。

上个月，埃克森美孚通过发布有关碳资产风险的报告，以换取Arjuna撤回股东提案，以回应Arjuna Capital的提案。该报告“管理风险”，忘了解决一件事：风险。

Exxon asserted in the report that it is "confident" a low-carbon scenario won't come to pass, and that consequently, none of it hydrocarbon reserves will become stranded. The firm's argument was basically that policymakers won't intervene in the face of unabated global energy demand.

But Arjuna's question wasn't whether a low-carbon future was likely. It was how the firm would deal with such a future possibility. It was a request for the most fundamental risk-management and scenario-planning exercise. Exxon's report said, in effect, we're certain that scenario won't happen so we don't need to plan for it.

但是怎么能这么确定呢？

埃克森美孚（Exxon）的报告确实承认气候变化的威胁，并以一种一般的方式接受，我们作为一个社会应该制动而不是更快地踩在山上。但是该报告认为，社会应该谨慎地开始，然后将更大的投资进一步发展，而不是越来越早于降低气候风险。

在对低碳情景的分析中，该报告表明，要达到最多450 ppm的低碳目标，社会将需要在今天的排放量减少上花费约2％2090年的中位收入中位数的44％，或按今天的美元收入超过每吨二氧化碳。

One can only assume that this is its projected cost of a last-ditch effort to avoid catastrophe by pulling carbon directly out of the atmosphere at scale — that is, air capture and sequestration. This is indeed a rather strange forecast because most experts believe that air capture would cost less than that today, much less in 75 years.

Or perhaps it's just a scare tactic.

The company then argues that this low-carbon path is far too expensive to be feasible, and that we won't, in fact, spend such amounts. And because society won't bear these costs, a low-carbon future that strands Exxon's carbon assets isn't a realistic possibility. Q.E.D.

The report's ultimate advice: Shoot for 550 or 650 ppm and hope for the best. And at those levels, we can burn all our hydrocarbons.

换句话说：我们要去忽略这种风险。投资者也可以安全。

埃克森美孚（Exxon）确实采取了近视，故意扭曲了气候和碳资源风险的看法，以最大程度地降低投资者将其准确地将其定价为埃克森美孚（Exxon）的股票的程度。该公司的“计划”对社会不是合理的计划，也不支持其股东的长期利益。

对美国骑自行车的人驶向雾中的山上，埃克森美孚说：“忽略悬崖。不必担心放慢脚步。这是很长的路要走。让我们继续前进。”

Our advice to shareholders: Beware investing in stranded assets. When climate risk is properly accounted for, their prices will fall.

ExxonMobil sign image by泰娜·索尔曼（Taina Sohlman）通过快门。