始终存在争议，但需要迄今为止，石油和天然气工业处于战略和目的的十字路口。作为气候危机的赌注，为商业和社会而言，没有行业部门在其未来的运营许可证上受到更严格的审查。
对该行业未来存在的辩论居住在极偏见的意见之间：将石油和天然气工业委托给历史的垃圾箱的进步批评者，以及由于社会继续需要碳氢化合物产品而认为他们的商业未来是不可避免的。
景观是乱丢的预测和场景，包括两者之间的观点和其他方案。这些来自行业的大多数观点和其批评者由于未能在工作中同时进行几种变革因素而产生的洞察力很小。这些失败包括：
该行业失去了对其社会叙事的控制。In this context, a narrative is the dominant story that a sector of society (a government agency, an industry) communicates about its value to its principal stakeholders and society in general. Following decades of public opinion research, the oil and gas industry has long recognized that it was unpopular with large segments of the public, but its societal narrative was constructed around its financial stability and rewards, its ability to manage technological complexity and its ability to consistently provide products that met a continuing social need for mobility, economic development and prosperity.
Oil and gas companies simply are no longer an attractive investment.
这种叙述是被气候变化从气候变化的中断和危机中的破坏被解构和拆除，以至于公众对其提供更美好未来的能力的信心危机。高级行业高管无法阐明可靠的理由，以满足社会不断变化的期望，使该行业的困境变得复杂。
投资者信心正在迅速下降。趋势都是宏观和微观。例如，在美国，标准普尔500指数的能源公司（主要石油）的价值从总指数的11％下降到今年夏天的总指数的少于3％。
According to Goldman Sachs, the cost of capital for long-term petroleum investments is about 20 percent, whereas renewables’ projects can be funded at a capital cost of 3 to 5 percent. This factor, more than a commitment to mitigating climate change, helps explain why so many financial institutions are withdrawing their support for high-cost, long-term petroleum exploration in the Arctic and other regions.
Large, integrated petroleum companies are forced to shrink their budgets, staffs and assets. ExxonMobil announced Nov. 30 it would write off up to $20 billion of assets in the fourth quarter of this year, reduce capital expenditures to between $16 billion and $19 billion next year from a projected $30 billion to $35 billion, and continue with a workforce reduction of 14,000, or 15 percent. BP, a smaller company, is on a similar trajectory, with proposed asset write-offs of $17.5 billion of its oil and gas holdings and staff reductions of 10,000, or 15 percent of its workforce. Business decisions at Chevron, Royal Dutch/Shell (where several very senior executives responsible for clean energy recently resigned over a dispute on company strategy) and Total follow a similar pathway.
虽然许多这些决策在对石油和天然气产品的需求降低时反映了大流行的加速影响，但他们也证明了石油和天然气资产价值的长期市场预期简单的价值。
这些因素增加了艰巨的结论：石油和天然气公司根本不再有吸引力。据波士顿咨询集团称，十年下半年的股东没有大型工业的股东大于石油和天然气。
Market transformations move away from fossil fuels.石油和天然气公司高管充分认识到这种转变正在进行中，但相信他们将以逐步和有条不紊地进行。他们受到国际能源机构统计数据，即去年消耗的80％的能源因煤炭，天然气和石油生产而消耗。
Offsetting this comfort zone are far more disruptive developments. Goldman Sachs has forecast that, over the next decade, there will be $16 trillion in investments to decarbonize the global economy in renewables, electricity grid infrastructure, carbon capture and storage, and hydrogen.
2011年11月23日公告说，它不再支持特朗普政府努力为加利福尼亚提供自己的排放和燃油效率规则，将其与福特，本田和大众逐步淘汰汽油和柴油动力车辆和卡车。GM plans to convert to an all-electric future with commitments to introduce 30 new global electric vehicles by 2025. Simultaneously, and for the first time, solar and wind comprised most of the world’s new power generation, or about two-thirds of new electricity capacity installation.
行业适应策略是着名的延伸，以及对新的混浊关节。对石油和天然气部门适应思维的审查揭示了三大途径：
风暴中的车手：这次思考是在八月的八月的首席执行官Mike Wirth表示，评论德克萨斯州石油和天然气协会。全球对清洁能源的需求“并不意味着石油和天然气的结束，”他劝告他的同事。“我们将找到制造石油和天然气更有效的方法，更环境良好......它将成为混合的一部分。”换句话说，通过收紧其皮带，行业可以乘以当前价格较低的经济挑战和抑郁的需求，因为它在以前的许多场合，同时使得留在业务所需的增量技术调整。
桥梁到未来：代替煤炭天然气以发电的倡导者享有良好的十年。然而，由于更高的资本成本，石油和气体桥的宽度和长度缩短;过量生产和大流行需求减少的定价能力降低;关键市场的结构变化（见上文）和新兴的公共政策决策（见下文）。
Another bridge repositions hydrocarbons for chemicals manufacturing, a strategy that is enjoying a boom in the form of petrochemicals investment in China, the Middle East and western companies for converting cheap supplies of both oil and gas into downstream chemical products, especially those that can be converted into plastics and other high-demand products.
第三座桥选项是更具发展的，而是吸引更多的球员和投资资本：氢气及其用于脱碳的主要市场，如发电，肥料生产和运输。好用的买球外围app网站该行业在工业气体制造，分销和储存的经验，它在利用大量现有基础设施的同时在建筑物范围内发挥更强大的作用。气候变化的紧迫性使商务案例和对氢的社会接受更加引人注目（特别是如果它可以在没有化石燃料的规模上制造）。
商业模式混乱：最积极的支持行业远离其传统的石油和天然气商业模式是BP的首席执行官伯纳德·鲁尼。经过一段时间的职位，他于2月份宣布，该公司将其石油和天然气产量缩小40％，投资海上风电和太阳能电池和电池储存，并考虑在其7,000人中安装电动汽车充电站U.S. gasoline stations — all aimed at making BP net-zero for carbon emissions by 2050.
Looney的三管齐下的消息传递 - 重新推崇能源，重新发明BP和转换时进行 - 旨在将BP转换为亚马逊或微软的能源，其中“我们是世界上少数公司实际上可以解决大型复杂问题的公司之一”。
缺乏Looney，市场的反应和许多行业同伴的细节的详细细节，这是一个集体打哈欠。对于20世纪90年代的公司承诺超越石油，是一家比整个石油公司更好的一家石油公司？随着金融时期布莱斯老年人所指出的，“直到明确BP如何打算在这段时间出来，投资者可能希望坐下来。”
该国的作用现已融合在脱碳世界领先经济体上，因此代表了对石油和天然气行业的长期存在威胁。
重新出现“创业态”
Economist Mariana Mazzucato’s 2013 treatise, "创业状态“借助国外融资的资本主义，借鉴了神话的眼罩。在审查第二次世界大战后的创新历史中，她得出结论，”采取最大胆的风险并实现最大的突破的实体不是私营部门;这是巨大的州。“
她的例子范围从研究导致制药产品，谷歌搜索引擎后面的算法，苹果的iPhone和可再生能源技术的主要技术组成部分。最近，政府资金一直是创新的亮相，导致Covid-19疫苗开发。
国家的作用融合在脱碳世界领先经济体上，因此代表了对石油和天然气行业的长期存在威胁。这种威胁有两种方式表达了：实施政策框架，限制农业，建筑，能源，运输和经济活动中的温室气体排放的释放;好用的买球外围app网站和化石燃料的替代品投资。后一组选择是更改的。
One can debate past dawn if the $2 trillion Biden clean energy plan is sufficient to achieve the objectives of the 2015 Paris Climate Accord (or if the U.S. Congress will even enact it); whether the lack of transparency surrounding China’s net-zero 2060 pledge compromises its credibility; and if the European Union’s moonshot 1 trillion euro Green New Deal initiative can be implemented across 27 sovereign nations.
无论不同的政治利益，意识形态和漏洞，更多的事实是，世界三个最大和最有影响力的经济集团正在使用国家权力和融资工具的类似时间框架中的共同方向进行，以获得大致对齐的结果。已经出现了新的国家和全球叙事和联盟，说服了相关的政治行动者（政策制定者，议会，国务企业，私营部门公司），即达到碳化投资以满足气候危机规模。
石油和天然气行业可以 - 私营部门或国有企业 - 在这种新集体现实中适应和生存吗？
答案是肯定的,但。它将尝试延迟some regulatory controls on its operations and products; further streamline staff and refocus or write-off assets; develop technologies to improve operating efficiencies and reduce its carbon footprint; contribute to innovations in carbon capture and storage; seek subsidies and other rents; advance hydrogen or other technologies to market scale where it maintains competencies; and continue to advance prosperity in developing nations that lack sufficient knowledge and capital to be in the forefront of a decarbonized world for the next generation, or longer.
Oil and gas are not going to disappear. However, it is unlikely to keep the high dividend checks flowing to shareholders as alternatives to fossil fuels emerge at scale to provide society with different energy solutions. Like the Ottoman Empire, the industry can persevere for an extended period and recede alongside the controversies that currently engulf it.
披露：该专栏作家以1988年至1992年，美国石油研究所曾担任卫生与环境副总裁。
