如何在美国总统转型期间保持头脑

从一个政府到下一个政府的过渡经常令人兴奋，有时娱乐，始终是重要的 - 特别是当涉及的政党变化时。

过渡捕捉领导人及其支持者对其政策和遗产的持久影响以及预期办公室持有人渴望获得令人垂涎的职位并落实议程的影响。大多数现任主管部门腾出能源和焦点，而许多进入的过渡团队通常估计他们从最近的选举中获得的选举授权。

过渡捕捉领导人及其支持者对其政策和遗产的持久影响以及预期办公室持有人渴望获得令人垂涎的职位并落实议程的影响。

面对2016年特别有争议的选举，如何评估从奥巴马到特朗普政府的当前过渡的重要气压仪？四个指标看起来特别有用：

• Ideology vs. competence.每次新政府都被其胜利的竞选人员振动，渴望实施他们对良好和公正的社会的愿景，其中许多人将被选为重要职位。然而，这种强烈的积极性的人经常没有管理大型，复杂的组织和在总统主管部门历史上所需的技能，关系和气质，他们经常在总统任期的上半年离开。例如，罗纳德里根总统任命了高度思想内阁级官员，以领导环境保护局和内政部。无能和丑闻困扰，这些官员离开或其议程在两年内重新关注。
  
  
• 回滚与改革。在竞选期间,当选总统特朗普和另外一些er surrogates vigorously stated the case for the repeal of Obamacare, climate change agreements and regulations, and financial reform. The new president will possess significant executive authority to make adjustments in these programs, but he will need the approval of courts and the sanction of Congress to abolish or significantly revamp or repeal them. While the acrimonious debate over these and other government initiatives was conducted during the campaign, major voices in society — from the business community to state and local officials — have already accommodated to major parts of them even while supporting targeted reforms.
  
  
• Unilateralism vs. collaboration。The United States remains the dominant military power in a world where many of the principal problems are not solvable by military force. Issues as diverse as large-scale population migration, Brexit and the cohesion of the European Union, economic competition with China and other nations, and water scarcity in strategically important regions are all in the top tier of the national security agenda alongside terrorism, Syria and relations with Russia. Unilateralism — in military or economic form — in a world with no one really capable of being in charge anymore will lead to exposure and risk, whereas leadership consists of knowing how to incentivize, cajole and sometimes force people to collaborate in solving a problem.
  
  
• 政策与市场。正在出现重大的政治机会来制定立法来重建美国基础设施的大部分基础设施并改革税法。其他问题，如移民改革，修改贸易协定，赤字减少或不断变化的监管框架，更具政治挑战。不仅需要推进每个问题所需的不同联盟，每个联盟经常在新政府党内或其盟友依赖主要的盟友上policy instruments or market forces to achieve desired outcomes. Many CEOs, for example, are professed free traders in the movement of ideas,产品和人，但他们支持权利改革，并赞助通过监管或税收的碳排放的某种形式的限制。观察特朗普管理在政策或市场解决方案或混合方法之间的针头之间的线程将是其最初阶段中最相关的客厅之一。

观察特朗普管理在政策或市场解决方案或混合方法之间的针头之间的线程将是其最初阶段中最相关的客厅之一。

在整理和调和这些二分选项时，设置优先级的能力至关重要。新政府将展示一个非常集中的议程，并调动其政治资本，以成功地说服国会制定其提案（早期的经济和安全问题的方法），或者其任命和注意力跨越时钟的注意力萎靡不振（第一项克林顿结果）？重要的问题是否会解决（经济，国家安全，气候变化），新总统能否在统一国家和安慰他的支持者方面取得适当的平衡？

Whatever the outcome, we would be well advised to remember the words of the slave who whispered into the Roman charioteer’s ear: SIC Transit Gloria Mundi- 所有的荣耀转眼即逝。