预计强劲增长,今年的商业储能
可再生能源发电的部署(主要是太阳能光伏发电和风力发电场)有大幅增长,在过去十年,并预计将继续增长到未来。这是由于降低成本和技术改进导致增加的功率输出。
Indeed, the International Energy Associationexpects即平均每年全球可再生设备将是80%比煤,石油和天然气联合2017年和2040年间分别高,Navigant的研究预计,风电和太阳能光伏发电装置 - 无论是在前面和后面的仪表 - 累计将超过1500万千瓦2017年和2026之间。
This is good news in terms of sustainability and greenhouse gas reduction activities. However, this massive influx of variable generation capacity can present issues for outdated electrical grids around the globe. Energy storage that supports renewables integration can help solve these issues by maintaining smooth, consistent power flow to the grid. As a result, renewable installations combined with energy storage are expected to make significant waves in the energy market well into the future.
这种性质的部署可分为两个大的部分。第一类包括公用事业规模的太阳能PV和风力发电厂(通常大于1兆瓦容量)联合能量储存和能够服务整个社区。第二类包括背后的米太阳能PV安装与能量存储,其通常个体服务商业或住宅建筑物和通常比尺寸1个MW更少组合。可再生能源设施结合能量存储器中ge are expected to make significant waves in the energy market well into the future.
Renewable, utility-scale power plants tied with energy storage will be a major force in the global energy market — but it is the behind-the-meter installations combining renewables with storage that will lead the way around the world over the next decade.
考虑到这些预测。储能绑公用事业规模的风能和太阳能,预计到2026年营收背后的电表安装将达到$ 9.6十亿年的总收入,但预计将在同一时间将超过$ 13十亿。
That latter category includes commercial and industrial (C&I), and residential installations and is expected to account for almost 70 percent of all renewables integrated with storage capacity over the next decade.
下面图表所示的这些部署由段全球市场预测。住宅和C&I预计仅包括储能以及太阳能光伏,不包括分布式风部署。由于降低成本和更成熟和强大的融资机制 - 尽管分布式风确实有幕后米的可再生能源发电来跑龙套的,市场是由太阳能光伏领导。
多个驱动器打头阵
两个C&I和住宅部署与储能相结合的可再生能源的主要驱动力是降低用电成本。此外,激励的减少太阳能光伏如feed-in tariffs(FITs) and净计量in several key markets actually has improved the business case for energy storage plus solar PV over standalone solar PV. These programs usually reward facilities for sending excess solar power back to the grid rather than storing it. As these incentives are scaled back or eliminated, the addition of energy storage helps keep distributed solar PV economical by allowing customers to maximize onsite consumption of their solar energy even into the night; it also provides a source of backup power during outages.
Further,demand charges- 特别是有影响力的C&I的客户 - 提供显著激励储能与现场的太阳能光伏集成。需求收费通过基于客户的特定时期内的最大电力需求,通常在一个月的时间很短电力公司征收的电费。这样的费用可以占到一个C&I客户账单的显著部分。
The primary function of many C&I energy storage systems is to reduce building load, which helps avoid high demand charges and time-based pricing. As Lisa Laughner, CEO atGo Electric,noted, "Customers look at solar PV plus storage for broader reasons than just solar PV alone. Solar PV plus storage amplifies the economic benefits of solar PV because it provides the ability to extend the sun and doload shifting“。Sustainability initiatives, resilience requirements and new financing options are driving strong growth of behind-the-meter deployments.
These drivers — along with sustainability initiatives, resilience requirements and new financing schemes — are driving the strong growth of behind-the-meter installations that combine renewables and storage.
如进料关税和净计量方案激励的减少使能量存储有吸引力的,当涉及到独立的太阳能光伏投资和一个集成的系统,其包括存储之间做出决定;然而,他们不排除在创建整体市场一个有趣的悖论的集成存储和可再生能源。
That's because both feed-in tariffs and net metering incentives are major drivers in inspiring behind-the-meter solar PV deployments in the first place. When these incentives are reduced or eliminated, installations can drop significantly.
Navigant的研究anticipates that between 75 percent and 90 percent of behind-the-meter energy storage will be used for integration with on-site solar PV by 2026. As solar PV demand decreases, the demand for integrated installations also will decrease. That's why solar PV incentive reductions can be both a driver and a barrier for ESRI at the same time.
Falling PV and energy storage prices negate need for incentives
打击减少或消除太阳能光伏激励计划是太阳能光伏的快速下探的价格。如下图所示,太阳能光伏发电价格在住宅和商业市场下跌超过60%,从2010年至2017年太阳能光伏的价格已经下降到如此地步,系统在许多全球市场平价上网 - 如德国,西班牙和加利福尼亚,夏威夷和纽约的美国各州。
这些成本削减抵消了激励机制的需要。电网平价是太阳能光伏部署一个显著驱动,随着经济情况很容易。低太阳能光伏发电的价格可能提高对独立太阳能光伏发电系统的情况;然而,正如菲利普·布沙尔,高级副总裁EOS储能,noted: "The falling price of solar actually increases the economic viability of solar plus storage because you can upsize the solar array and/or invest in a larger battery system to provide more dispatchable energy when utilities need it most." That's another reason that integrated storage and renewable deployments will continue to grow as solar PV prices fall.
Other forces in the market are helping to drive Navigant's strong growth forecast.
首先,能源存储成本正在下降,预计将继续下降多达50%的一些应用程序和技术。存储的附加成本仍可能在某些情况下望而却步,但随着价格的下降,这些情况将随着时间的推移罕见。
其次,客户 - 特别是那些在C&I空间 - 常常需要在电网停电的情况下,弹性作为他们的现场发电系统的一部分。如果发生在夜间断电的独立太阳能光伏发电装置不能提供这一点,更重要的,大多数太阳能光伏发电系统并网,必须在中断的情况下,反正被关闭。的能量存储系统可以在步骤并且在这样的中断的情况下提供备份。此外,许多更大的市场,如加州,New YorkandGermany有激励额外的能量存储,更可能会遵循实施的方案。
The future is bright for both renewables and energy storage. Together, the two are proving to be a powerful combination in the global energy market.