Climate change is coming for your Christmas favorites
在节日期间一点点放纵，是我们的好奇和充满挑战的一年持久的回报。但是，自己梅开二度再次，对于许多零食，我们期待着已经受到气候变化的威胁。
Verisk Maplecroft的新发布气候变化Exposure Index(CCEI) highlights that changing weather patterns over the coming decades are likely to impact the quantity — and quality — of a range of festive goods, from fine wines to perfume to Christmas nibbles.
For consumers, climate change may affect the price and availability of the goods we're buying. But for luxury products, the more significant threat is that the exclusive characteristic of a brand that makes it so desirable could be irretrievably altered.
For example, Champagne and port are so synonymous with their point of origin that near-identical goods produced outside of those regions are considered inferior. Yet even a small change in climate conditions in these regions could mean that they are no longer as well suited for growing their famous products.
Grapes for port come from the mountainous eastern reaches of the Douro Valley, among the world's oldest and most beautiful vineyard areas. But Verisk Maplecroft's research shows that the Douro Valley is among the most highly exposed areas to climate change of any wine region in Europe. And while the Champagne region in France is, overall, less exposed than the Douro, the southeast of the region is categorized as a high risk by the CCEI.
This gives luxury brands and customers a lot to ponder. Will the popularity of wines coming from the Douro or Champagne regions survive a potential dip in quality arising from a change in growing conditions? And will producers and consumers be prepared to accept versions of those products from different growing regions, perhaps new areas whose suitability has been improved by climate change? This is the gamble being taken by thoseChampagne houses buying up land in Kent.
Nutmeg, cinnamon and cloves are all sourced from regions likely to be affected by rising temperatures and more variable rainfall patterns.
其他圣诞收藏夹可能对品牌和消费者类似的问题。去年，绿色商业突出warnings that warmer winters in the Gobi desert could mean less or lower quality cashmere is produced — bad news if your sole repertoire of mother-in-law gifts comprises scarves and shawls.
另一个常年popular gift, the world's best-selling perfume, could also be under threat.
香奈儿购买每年10吨和15之间的茉莉花，几乎全部进入使得其标志性的5号香水。这些花近格拉斯法国南部的小镇，其中CCEI归类为在气候变化的极端风险主要生长。香奈儿可能要考虑替代资源，如果格拉斯在未来被证明不太可行的茉莉 - 或更直接的，应在planned high-speed rail line running through the region get the go-ahead- 但这些替代品是否会对已经推进5号享誉全球的不确定性相同的音符。
其它香料成分可能受到类似的影响：海地提供世界香根草的电源半，在香水中的主机所使用草，又是第二个最暴露的国家在世界上气候变化，根据CCEI。同时，全球香草产量的92％来自于分类为CCEI高和极端风险，包括马达加斯加，印度尼西亚，墨西哥和巴布亚新几内亚的国家。
Vanilla is extremely sensitive to changes in temperature, yet projections suggest that average temperatures in Madagascar, the world's dominant vanilla producer, will rise 0.5 degrees Celsius by 2035. Meanwhile, climate change is also expected to bring more intense cyclones to the island, potentially repeating the devastation of Cyclone Hudah, which destroyed around 20 percent of Madagascar's vanilla crop in 2000 and contributed to dramatic price spikes for the commodity over the following years.
Even the most traditional Christmas gifts — gold, frankincense and myrrh — are fraught with climate risks. Gold production in both China and South Africa is facing greater water stress, while melting permafrost threatens to flood mines in Russia. Meanwhile, aromatic resins frankincense and myrrh are primarily sourced from Somalia and Yemen, respectively — both high-risk countries in the CCEI projected to experience extreme droughts in the coming decades.
但可以肯定，我们仍然可以淹没了我们的痛苦与热葡萄酒和肉馅饼？好吧，也许不会太久。主要成份肉豆蔻，肉桂，丁香都是从可能受气温上升和更多变的降雨模式受到影响的区域采购。
In fact, 70 percent of global nutmeg production is in extreme risk countries in the CCEI, with the two largest producers — Guatemala and Indonesia — both among the 10 countries most exposed to climate change. In Indonesia, a major producer of cinnamon and cloves, mean temperatures may rise by up to 1.5 degrees C by 2050, while over the same period the proportion of rain falling in heavy events is set to double, increasing flood risk to crops.
In some instances, adaptation programs offer the potential for sourcing countries to combat the impacts of the changing climate on production. However, with at-risk commodities typically produced in countries without the resources to support such innovation, the question for brands is whether they invest in these expensive and time-consuming initiatives that are not guaranteed to succeed: If the resulting products differ in taste or quality, will their reputations alone be enough to inspire customers to continue to pay top dollar?
在其他国家的气候的变化可能使他们的奢侈品更适合生产。然而，仍有待观察圣诞派对主机是否会承认从肯特服务起泡酒，而不是香槟。
